Nexus Special Report

Iran's Turmoil and the South Caucasus: Why Stability in Tehran Matters examines the causes and implications of the mass protests shaking Iran in late 2025. While economic hardship and political discontent have driven widespread demonstrations, the article explains why a full regime collapse remains unlikely and why regional actors—especially Türkiye—prefer a stable Iran to outright chaos.

For countries in the South Caucasus, including Armenia and Azerbaijan, Tehran's stability is more than a distant concern. A functioning Iranian state anchors regional peace, discourages destabilizing projects like an extraterritorial "Zangezur Corridor," and preserves vital trade and transit links for Armenia. The analysis also outlines how a fractured Iran could spread insecurity across borders, fueling separatist movements, refugee flows, and broader instability. Rather than revolution, the most probable outcome of the unrest is a combination of limited internal reforms and renewed diplomatic engagement, particularly on economic relief and nuclear negotiations.

The article concludes that a stable, reforming Iran serves the interests of South Caucasus security and economic connectivity far better than the uncertainty of state collapse.

This special report analyzes the reported January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. special forces and argues that the operation signals a decisive shift in U.S. foreign policy. Moving beyond economic sanctions and diplomatic ambiguity, Washington appears increasingly willing to employ direct, precision enforcement against leaders it designates as criminal threats to international order.

The report situates the Maduro operation within a broader strategic pattern and examines its implications for other adversarial states, particularly Iran. It contends that long-standing assumptions in Tehran—namely that U.S. pressure would remain confined to sanctions and indirect containment—are becoming increasingly untenable. By treating a sitting head of state as subject to extraction and prosecution, the United States has altered the strategic calculus for regimes accustomed to sanction fatigue and prolonged stalemate.

While acknowledging the legal, normative, and escalation risks associated with such actions, the analysis concludes that U.S. policy has entered a phase where enforcement is no longer abstract. For Iran and others watching closely, the episode serves as a strategic warning that compresses decision-making timelines and raises the cost of miscalculation.